Analysis: Yoon's unification policy requires time

Yoon redefined South Korea's approach to unification but success will not occur under his administration

Event or Trend: The Yoon administration redefined South Korea's approach to unification with a focus on preparation through the promotion of freedom, economic reforms, and public empowerment.

Significance: The unification policy under President Yoon Suk-yeol emphasizes a vision that is notably distinct from previous administrations. It moves away from engagement and seeks to highlight unification as a process of liberation for North Korea, fostering freedom, human rights, and economic opportunities. This shift is crucial as it addresses growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and introduces a strategic alignment with global human rights norms and U.S. policies. It marks a potential turning point in South Korea’s long-standing aim for unification, presenting new opportunities and risks, especially in its treatment of the North Korean public and elites, defection strategies, and overall peace stability.

Analysis: President Yoon’s unification policy pivots on several core principles, which include:

1. Framing unification as liberation: Unlike past administrations that focused on engagement with North Korea through economic or cultural exchanges, the Yoon administration promotes unification as a means of liberation for North Koreans. The South Korean government is positioning itself as a beacon of freedom, particularly in light of the growing concerns over human rights abuses in the North​.

2. Emphasis on human rights: The policy underscores human rights as a non-negotiable condition for dialogue with North Korea. This strategic shift aligns South Korea with international bodies that condemn North Korean human rights violations, making human rights an integral part of the unification agenda. This contrasts with the engagement policies of previous administrations, which often sidelined these concerns to prioritize denuclearization.

3. Preparation of North Korean public for unification: In his unification vision, Yoon advocates for measures that would prioritize the role of the North Korean public in advocating for change. In particular, the supportive epistemic community believes that North Korean elites, especially military leaders and technocrats, will need to be incorporated into a future unified Korean structure. Policies aimed at offering these elites security and a future within a unified Korea are crucial to building support for unification. The strategy suggests that offering amnesty, economic incentives, and roles in a unified society would help neutralize the potential threat posed by elites who might otherwise rebel against the process.

4. Economic and Humanitarian Support. The Yoon administration emphasizes that economic growth and prosperity would be critical for North Korea, as individuals have already shifted towards capitalist entrepreneurial activities in North Korea's gray markets​. Economic integration would provide the North Korean public with incentives to support unification. Moreover, Yoon's policy highlights that South Korea is prepared to initiate market reforms and humanitarian programs that would assist the North in aligning with global economic standards​.

Yoon’s policy is closely allied with U.S. policies and frames unification as part of a broader security framework. By emphasizing the role of North Korean public in a post-unification government, the administration aims to avoid the pitfalls of previous regime collapses, such as in Iraq, where civic distrust and group fragmentation thwarted attempts to consolidate the state and its society. Yoon’s approach is to integrate the North Korean public, as well as military and political elites into the new system to ensure security and continuity​.

Despite the significant transformation, Yoon’s policies will not have a significant impact under his administration.

Reflecting the nature of South Korea’s constitution and presidential term limits, as well as the impact of presidential popularity on the capacity to push through policy initiatives, the Yoon Administration will be unable to lay the groundwork for trust and communication with North Korean public and elites in the remainder of his term.

The administration’s initiatives will however have an impact on future administrations.

If the next presidential administration is progressive, as seen in previous governments, there will be a return to engagement-focused strategies that prioritize economic cooperation and gradual rapprochement. This shift would likely de-emphasize the hardline focus on human rights and public empowerment. A future progressive government would likely face domestic and international political challenges in reversing policies that empower the North Korean public.

A conservative successor to Yoon may continue or even intensify the current administration’s focus on freedom, security, and push for an intensification of elite engagement. A conservative government may inherit a more stable foundation but would need to navigate the balance between empowering the North Korean public and incentivizing elites while avoiding outright opposition and increased hostility as the regime seeks to constrain external influences.

Outlook: In the short term (0-12 months), Yoon’s administration is likely to enhance diplomatic outreach focused on human rights and continue to build channels for empowering the North Korean public. However, the political landscape in South Korea is dynamic, and a change in administration would alter the trajectory of these policies. 

In the medium term (1-5 years), a progressive administration may attempt to soften the hardline stances on unification, focusing more on gradual economic integration and de-escalation of military tensions. Conversely, a conservative government may face challenges in managing the relationship with North Korea as the regime seeks to strengthen its control.