Analysis: Yoon Administration’s uneasy future with Trump’s America
The close relationship between Biden and Yoon presents a challenge to the relationship going forward.
Event or Trend: The Yoon administration’s close alignment with the Biden administration has been a defining feature of South Korea’s recent foreign policy. This tight partnership may now face significant challenges with the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.
Significance: South Korea’s foreign policy is at a crossroads. The Yoon administration’s strong rapport with the Biden administration, marked by high-profile defense agreements and shared strategies on North Korea, has strengthened bilateral ties. However, Trump’s prospective presidency, known for its transactional approach to alliances and criticism of free riders in defense, poses risks to South Korea’s stability and strategic interests. Policymakers and businesses must prepare for potential disruptions in security cooperation, trade relations, and diplomatic dynamics as a new administration could demand concessions or even question the U.S.-ROK alliance’s fundamentals.
Analysis: President Yoon Suk-yeol has cultivated a foreign policy centered on strong alliances, particularly with the U.S. under Biden. The close relationship between President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is highlighted by several key developments and moments in their diplomatic engagements:
Washington Declaration (April 2023): During Yoon's state visit to the U.S., the leaders announced the Washington Declaration, which strengthened extended deterrence measures, including deploying a U.S. nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea. This initiative demonstrated mutual trust and alignment on addressing North Korean threats.
Joint State Dinner: President Yoon's state visit to Washington in April 2023 was accompanied by a state dinner hosted by President Biden, showcasing the symbolic and strategic significance of their relationship.
Cultural Bonding Moments: President Yoon sang "American Pie" with a guitar signed by Don McLean gifted to him by Biden. Biden described the event as "a great moment," highlighting their personal camaraderie alongside formal ties. The event was widely covered in the media.
Cooperation on Global Challenges: They have jointly addressed challenges like semiconductor supply chain resilience, clean energy transitions, and cybersecurity. These initiatives reflect their shared commitment to both regional and global issues.
Trilateral Summit with Japan (Camp David, August 2023): Biden and Yoon, along with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, emphasized trilateral cooperation and announced measures to enhance joint military exercises, economic security, and intelligence sharing, marking a historic moment for the U.S.-South Korea-Japan alliance.
Frequent Communication: Biden and Yoon have had multiple bilateral meetings and phone calls, reflecting a strong line of communication and shared strategic interests in Indo-Pacific security.
These examples illustrate a partnership built on trust, shared goals, and efforts to deepen the U.S.-South Korea alliance in both bilateral and multilateral contexts. However, this effort has necessitated a close working relationship with Biden, including multiple high profile visual images.
As demonstrated on previous occasions, popular high profile mass media imagery has a particularly strong impact on Donald Trump. Donald Trump’s approach to diplomacy is heavily shaped by his personal instincts and views, often sidelining seasoned foreign policy advisors. He favors impulsive decisions and personal relationships over established diplomatic strategies, and has disdain for multilateral agreements, such as the Paris Climate Accord, NAFTA, and NATO commitments. This reflects a transactional mindset rather than strategic counsel. In his first administration, Trump’s personalization of diplomacy weakened institutional decision-making, strained traditional alliances, and created an unpredictable global posture that often prioritized short-term optics over long-term stability.
Yoon’s close ties with Biden will alienate Trump. Donald Trump’s personalized style of diplomacy, driven by instinct and transactional relationships, will prove problematic for Yoon Suk-yeol. Yoon will need to appear more fawning, obsequious, and submissive to Trump. With a domestic public already critical of his compliant attitude towards the U.S., Yoon's behavior towards Trump will come under substantial attention.
There are already indications that Trump will seek to secure concessions from South Korea. Trump suggested that South Korea should pay up to $10 billion annually for the presence of American forces, and stated that the country was a "money machine." This stance raises concerns about potential renegotiations of defense cost-sharing agreements and the future of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea. Trump's history of proposing the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea unless financial demands are met could lead to heightened tensions within the alliance.
Yoon’s administration will seek to proactively engage Trump’s transition team and key republican figures as early as possible. Yoon will seek to provide an early offer, such as SMA renegotiation or shipbuilding investment, to give Trump a degree of credibility early on in his administration. However, South Korea will start in an unenviable position when compared to European Union, NATO, and AUKUS states which face similar concerns.
Diplomats need to monitor signals from the Trump transition team about alliance commitments and potential trade deal re-negotiations. Shifts in U.S. troop deployments or public criticism of South Korea may also indicate upcoming challenges.
Outlook: In the short term, diplomatic overtures to Trump’s team are likely as Yoon seeks to ensure stability. Over the medium term, South Korea may need to recalibrate its defense budget and policies to align with shifting U.S. expectations. Long-term implications could see South Korea pivoting toward greater self-reliance in security or diversifying partnerships beyond the U.S.