Analysis: South Korea's public distrust of U.S. grows amid spying allegations

Allegations of U.S. spying on South Korea are adding to a widening gap between the public and the Yoon Administration policy of strengthening South Korea - U.S. relations.

Event or Trend: A recent investigation by a popular media program has revisited U.S. surveillance on South Korea, and sparked significant public concern about U.S. intentions, challenging Yoon Administration efforts to strengthen the relationship.

Significance: The alliance between the U.S. and South Korea is a cornerstone of regional security, particularly in countering North Korea. A recent NewsTapa program highlights an increasingly dissatisfied South Korean public, who are questioning the sincerity of U.S. support. This public skepticism adds a new layer of complexity for South Korean policymakers, as they balance Yoon Administration policy, longstanding alliance commitments, and growing domestic pressures. Public distrust of the U.S. will weaken political and popular support for the alliance, affecting both security policies and economic cooperation. The situation will become significantly enhanced if a Trump Administration is elected. For both governments, this situation demands careful management to prevent further erosion of trust at a time when regional stability depends on their cooperation.

Analysis: In April 2023, leaked documents disclosed that the U.S. may have monitored South Korean National Security Office officials, sparking public outrage in South Korea. The South Korean government initially attempted to downplay the incident, suggesting that the documents might be fabricated. However, further scrutiny has revealed that these documents are likely authentic, putting the administration in a difficult position. 

An investigation by online media entity NewsTapa (YouTube 1.36m subscribers) released 30 October now has 250k views, and is spreading on social media. This shows a growing rift in public trust, as citizens question both the intentions of the U.S. and their government’s response, which some perceive as overly accommodating to the U.S.

The Yoon administration now faces a significant challenge in maintaining public support for its U.S.-aligned policies.

The U.S.-South Korea alliance is experiencing a shift, with public distrust increasingly overshadowing official diplomacy. While both governments continue to publicly emphasize alliance strength, South Koreans are questioning U.S. motives, fueled by these recent surveillance allegations. Many citizens see the incident as a breach of sovereignty, expecting a stronger stance from their government. The Yoon administration’s subdued response has not resonated well, with critics arguing that the government prioritizes alliance optics over national integrity. 

While the surveillance might be seen as routine, the public perception differs significantly. This sentiment risks undermining the alliance, as popular support is essential for sustained military cooperation and policy alignment. South Korea’s progressive and conservative parties alike now face pressure from a public that feels alienated by its government’s approach. 

The situation will deteriorate further if Trump wins the election. The Trump Administration will pay less attention to the alliance, negotiate independently with North Korea (and neglect Yoon Administration policy), and seek to increase South Korean contributions to the maintenance of U.S. forces in Korea. 

The erosion of public trust could impact not only diplomatic relations but also the economic and military dimensions of the alliance, as support for joint initiatives may wane if the public’s concerns are not addressed. This could include:

• Increased public and political scrutiny on government transparency in U.S.-South Korea agreements.

• Rising anti-American sentiment, potentially influencing future elections and policy direction.

• Greater support for policies promoting South Korean sovereignty and independence in international relations.

Diplomats should watch for shifts in public discourse, particularly narratives emphasizing South Korean sovereignty and independence. Policy adjustments that limit South Korea’s reliance on the U.S. or increase oversight of U.S. partnerships could signal a response to this public sentiment.

Outlook: In the short term (0-12 months), the Yoon administration will continue policies that depend upon the promotion of a strong U.S. alliance and will seek to downplay the situation. In the medium term (1-5 years), regardless of the next administration, distrust will lead to a recalibration of South Korea’s foreign policy, with more independent or regionally balanced stances. In the long term (5-10 years), persistent public skepticism will compel future administrations to adopt a more cautious approach to the U.S. alliance, possibly pursuing alternative diplomatic partnerships to meet both security and public trust needs.