South Korea will accept China’s dominance...
So started a Jerry Springer show style foreign policy debate in a pub with academic, political, and government colleagues
Maybe it’s my 1990s Australian teenage years of wagging* school and watching corny American television repeats, but I often listen in on conversations between academic, political, and/or government colleagues and get bored, so I return to form and act as a tabloid talk show host. I become a foreign policy Jerry Springer, throwing out difficult topics, inciting anger, and provoking responses.
* It was pointed out to me that most readers are not familiar with this term. “To wag school” is the Australian equivalent of the U.S. term “to play hooky”.
Now to do this, you need to essentially have no position. You place yourself as the outsider, exploring all options, but always leading those who are most vocal towards holding a position that will enrage and incite the other side. Now Jerry Springer always dealt with controversial topics in U.S. society: race, adultery, sex, religion, and much more. This made inciting anger pretty easy.
Amongst foreign policy folk in Seoul, the range of controversial topics are much slimmer, but one which never fails to start a verbal brawl is South Korea’s sovereignty - the dominance of either the U.S. or China over Seoul’s future. And that’s how on one night not too long ago, a foreign policy debate came about - with the simple stipulation that sooner or later, South Korea will accept China’s dominance.
The possibility of a U.S. military withdrawal from South Korea has long been a theoretical concern, but under current global trends, it has become a policy scenario that everyone is taking seriously.
One option in response to such a withdrawal is for South Korea to acquiesce to China’s regional dominance, adjusting its foreign policy to align with Beijing’s interests and minimizing the risks associated with resisting the shifting balance of power in East Asia. Throughout millennia, the Korean Peninsula has leaned with the winds of change in China like an aged willow. Will it do the same if America leaves the region?
Accepting China’s dominance carries both significant risks and potential benefits. It’s a contentious and complex choice for South Korea. And if it were the Jerry Springer Show, supporters and opponents would fight straight away!
What follows, in no particular order, are a few of the hottest points and the rebukes - the ones that came closest to folk getting out of their chairs and throwing out their fists in support and opposition of South Korea accepting China’s dominance:
South Korea needs China! As South Korea’s largest trading partner, China accounts for nearly a quarter of its exports. Aligning more closely with Beijing secures favorable trade conditions, reduces the likelihood of economic retaliation resulting from strategic upheaval, and promotes stability in key industries, such as semiconductors and automobile manufacturing.
Yeah! Over the last ten years, South Korea’s trade has come under strain as the U.S. seeks to constrain China. This has led to unnatural trade and investment flows that weaken South Korea’s manufacturing base and ties South Korea to U.S. policy whims.
You know, if South Korea were not controlled by the U.S., it could be participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its infrastructure and technology projects. It could be building new markets and investment opportunities across the region. A South Korea that embraces China’s regional leadership could benefit from preferential economic arrangements and increased investment
The only difference between being economically dominated by China and the U.S. is distance!
You want South Korea to lose its sovereignty and strategic autonomy? The greatest risk in accepting China’s regional leadership is the erosion of South Korea’s sovereignty in decision-making. China has a history of leveraging economic influence to pressure smaller states into political concessions, as seen in its dealings with Australia, the Philippines, Taiwan - and South Korea itself after THAAD. South Korea would be forced to follow China’s political preferences, limiting its ability to make independent foreign and domestic policy decisions!
Is that any different to life under U.S. dominance? How much sovereignty and strategic autonomy has South Korea had in missile programs? In nuclear energy? In arms manufacturing and military operations? And leveraging economic influence? What’s happening right now?
Trump is an exception! China’s authoritarian model of governance and human rights policies are not an exception and are at odds with South Korea’s democratic values. If Seoul were to align with Beijing, it could face pressure to moderate its stance on issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
Taiwan, the South China Sea, and human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong? These are all just Western propaganda that we don’t question. Take Hong Kong, there was no democracy in Hong Kong under the U.K. Trump is not an exception - the U.S. is pursuing its own interests, and we should pursue our own interests!
South Korea will be safer! China has long opposed the presence of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula, viewing it as a threat to its own security. Why did Russian and Chinese troops leave North Korea, but U.S. troops never left South Korea? South Korea is just a U.S. foothold on the Eurasian continent from which it threatens China and Russia in a global game.
If South Korea were to accept China’s dominance, Beijing could even provide security guarantees, including assurances against North Korean aggression. Such an arrangement would allow South Korea to avoid the risks of direct confrontation in an increasingly multipolar world.
Let’s face it, the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Straits have been connected since the end of the Second World War. In any U.S. conflict with China over the South China Sea or the Taiwan Straits, South Korea will inevitably become involved. Accepting China’s dominance removes South Korea from the frontline of any U.S. conflict with China.
South Korea will lose its position in global affairs! Align with China and we lose the U.S. support that brought us here - a successful country. Given Washington’s strategic rivalry with Beijing, any shift in Seoul’s alignment will lead to reduced military, technological, and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. South Korea’s relations with other key allies, such as Japan and Australia, would also be at risk. Both nations remain committed to countering Chinese expansionism, and a South Korean shift toward Beijing could weaken trilateral security arrangements, reducing Seoul’s diplomatic leverage.
South Korea can be on the frontline of a U.S. conflict with China, or it can avoid being destroyed! That’s the choice! The Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War, the Korean War, they were all fought by outsiders on Korean territory at great cost, seeking control over the Korean Peninsula. For the first time in history, South Korea, and perhaps in the future, a unified Korea, can avoid being a hapless pawn.
South Korea will be vulnerable to China and North Korea! Increased trade and economic integration with China might appear beneficial in the short term, but South Korea could become vulnerable to economic coercion. China has previously used trade as a weapon against countries that defy its interests, as seen in its bans on Australian coal and Taiwanese pineapples. If South Korea becomes too dependent on China, it may face significant economic disruptions if Beijing decides to use its leverage to extract political concessions.
Is this any different with the U.S?
What about North Korea? If South Korea aligns more closely with China, it could face an even more complicated relationship with North Korea. Beijing’s historical support for Pyongyang has often undermined South Korean efforts at engagement and denuclearization. If China’s influence over Seoul grows, it would embolden North Korea to take a more aggressive posture, believing that Beijing could limit Seoul’s ability to respond independently.
If South Korea is free from the U.S. then China may see North Korea as a burden rather than a buffer. It may push North Korea to a settlement and end the division of the Peninsula.
You’re a communist!
You’re a fascist!
Towards the end of the Jerry Springer Show, there was always either an impasse or a resolution. Either way, Jerry would come in over the top and give his “final thought”.
If it was an impasse, he’d say something along the lines of the need to better understand each other’s positions. If it was a resolution, he’d say something positive about how talking can resolve our misunderstandings (ironically after provoking shouting matches and fisticuffs). So, here’s Jerry’s final thoughts.
Accepting China’s regional dominance presents both risks and advantages for South Korea. While concerns over sovereignty and diplomatic constraints are valid, closer alignment with China could also bring economic stability, security guarantees, and reduced regional tensions. Given the evolving geopolitical landscape, South Korea must assess whether prioritizing economic prosperity and regional stability outweighs the costs of distancing itself from the U.S. and its allies. Rather than seeing this decision solely in terms of dependence or resistance, South Korea may find opportunities in recalibrating its foreign policy to navigate a multipolar world where balancing multiple partnerships is key to securing its long-term national interests.
After an hour or two prodding and provoking, I recommended we go to the next bar… Not sure if Jerry ever did the same.