South Korea, Japan, China foreign ministers' meeting

Upcoming trilateral talks will emphasize economic cooperation and will potentially undermine U.S. security frameworks

The proposed trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea on 22 March in Tokyo represents a notable step in regional diplomacy. The last meeting of foreign ministers took place in November 2023.

On the surface, the meeting will revive high-level dialogue between the three nations, focusing on mutual prosperity and regional stability. The dialogue reflects the growing prioritization of economic diplomacy in East Asia, against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty amidst disruption with the Trump Administration.

The emphasis on economic cooperation marks a shift toward balancing security and economic strategies in regional diplomacy. China, Japan, and South Korea maintain deep trade connections, and their shared economic interests offer opportunities for collaboration on critical issues like supply chain resilience and sustainable growth. Trilateral security cooperation between Japan, South Korea, and the United States was heavily emphasized under the Biden Administration, and is likely to continue to be emphasized under the Trump Administration.

Security cooperation is underpinned by economic cooperation - or at least requires carefully managed competition - to promote a win-win outcome. Failure to also take into account economic cooperation imposes increased friction in bilateral/trilateral relationships, which inevitably spreads to security cooperation.

The proposed trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea, presents China with an opportunity to promote itself as the region’s responsible player. Economic stability underwrites strategic predictability and resilience - even when combined with clearly enunciated but nominally disruptive long-term goals to alter the regional status quo (repeated and stable enunciation normalizes disruptive long-term goals).

China has the potential to alter regional diplomacy through acting as a responsible economic partner and regional stakeholder. It has the potential to position itself to South Korea and Japan as it does to Southeast Asia - a principled major power and essential economic partner. This path will be more difficult in the context of U.S. interests and relations to Japan and South Korea, but the opportunity to do so will not likely occur again after the Trump Administration. Notably, China may not have the capacity to secure this strategic opportunity.

Mainstream media coverage in the lead-up to the meeting has focused on the potential for thawing relations and diplomatic breakthroughs. However, media narratives fail to mention the deeper strategic importance of economic integration. Reporting overlooks how prioritizing economic cooperation in these discussions could redefine regional stability by creating a more resilient and cooperative framework that extends beyond economic cooperation to defense and security stability.

In South Korea, anti-China sentiment is at an all-time high, buoyed by the ongoing political chaos. In the context of Trump’s imposition of tariffs on South Korea’s exports, the proposed trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea also holds the potential to undermine the current anti-China sentiment.

Over time, this evolving framework could encourage more diversified diplomatic strategies among East Asian countries, and will lay the foundations for China’s relationship with the next administration in South Korea.