South Korea and fears of U.S. abandonment
U.S. foreign policy and political instability have fueled South Korea's concern the alliance won't last
Abandonment syndrome (or security dilemma) refers to the psychological and strategic anxiety experienced by a country when it fears being deserted or neglected by a crucial ally, especially in times of need. This syndrome is characterized by a deep-seated worry that the ally will either withdraw support or fail to fulfill its commitments, leaving the concerned nation vulnerable to external threats.
In the context of South Korea's alliance with the United States, abandonment syndrome manifests through fears that the US might not fully honor its defense commitments, especially in the face of North Korean aggression or broader geopolitical shifts. South Korea worries that the US, focused on other global priorities or constrained by domestic pressures, might deprioritize its security or hesitate to intervene in a conflict. This anxiety is heightened by North Korea's growing nuclear capabilities and the perception that the US might avoid risking a nuclear confrontation to protect South Korea. Additionally, shifting US foreign policy and political instability have further fueled these fears, making South Korea concerned about the long-term reliability of its most vital security partner.
South Korea has long relied on its alliance with the United States as the cornerstone of its national security. So much so, that even those that espouse hatred of the US or rhetorically push for its departure, hesitate when the US commitment waivers. For decades, the US has maintained a military presence in the region, and the two countries have engaged in joint military exercises designed to deter North Korean aggression. In recent years, South Korea has become increasingly concerned that the US may not be fully committed to its defense.
One of the primary reasons for South Korea's concern is the perception that US global priorities are shifting away from the Korean Peninsula. Under the Obama administration, the US introduced the "Pivot to Asia" strategy, which aimed to counter China's rising influence in the region. While this shift initially reassured South Korea, the Pivot to Asia wavered.
The Obama Administration, the Trump administration's "America First" policy, and the Biden Administration’s wavering commitment has raised doubts about the US willingness to engage in costly foreign commitments. Despite President Biden's efforts to reaffirm US alliances in the region, the ongoing focus on countering China and the conflict in Ukraine has made South Korea question whether its security concerns are still a top priority for Washington.
North Korea's continued development of its nuclear arsenal has also exacerbated South Korea's fears. The North has conducted numerous missile tests in recent years, showcasing its ability to strike targets in South Korea, Japan, and potentially even the US mainland. While the US has consistently condemned these provocations and reiterated its commitment to South Korea's defense, the reality of a nuclear-armed North Korea has led to growing unease. South Korean leaders worry that the US might hesitate to defend the South in the event of a conflict, particularly if it risks a nuclear exchange.
This fear is not entirely unfounded. Some analysts in the US have questioned the credibility of extended deterrence in the face of a nuclear North Korea. The concept of "decoupling" — the fear that the US might prioritize its security over that of its allies — has gained traction. South Koreans worry that the US might be reluctant to intervene in a conflict if it means putting American cities at risk of nuclear attack.
Another factor contributing to South Korea's anxiety is the growing political polarization and instability within the US itself. The events surrounding the 2020 presidential election, the January 6 Capitol riot, political gridlock, and an election in which the two candidates do not seem at all focused on the challenges of concern to South Korea have led many South Koreans to question the reliability of the US as a stable and dependable ally.
The possibility of a future administration that might prioritize isolationism or even disengagement from the Korean Peninsula adds another layer of uncertainty.
Additionally, public opinion in the US has shown signs of fatigue regarding long-term military commitments overseas. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 highlighted the US public's growing reluctance to engage in prolonged conflicts. If similar sentiments continue to influence US foreign policy, South Korea fears that its security could be deprioritized in favor of domestic concerns.
The global balance of power is shifting, with China and Russia asserting themselves more aggressively on the world stage. South Korea is acutely aware of its proximity to these powers and the complex dynamics this creates. The US need to address multiple global threats simultaneously could strain its resources and attention, leading South Korea to worry that its security could be compromised if the US is forced to choose between conflicts in different regions.
The emergence of a multipolar world also means that South Korea must navigate a more complex web of relationships. While the US-ROK alliance remains vital, South Korea is increasingly exploring other diplomatic and security partnerships to hedge against the possibility of US disengagement. South Korea’s greatest fear - being wedged between the US and China and losing the economic, security, and political benefits it gains from each.
South Korea's concerns about US commitment to its defense are rooted in a complex interplay of global, regional, and domestic factors. While the US-ROK alliance currently remains strong, Korea has long been preparing to hedge against potential abandonment. This includes:
Increased Defense Spending and Military Modernization: South Korea has significantly increased its defense budget in recent years, investing in advanced weapons systems, such as missile defense and indigenous fighter jets. This move suggests a desire to enhance its self-reliance in defense, possibly due to doubts about the US willingness to fully protect South Korea in a crisis.
Development of Indigenous Capabilities: South Korea has been developing its own missile systems, including long-range missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). These efforts signal a move towards greater autonomy in its defense posture, reducing reliance on US military support.
Strengthening Regional Alliances: South Korea has been actively engaging with other regional powers, such as Japan and Australia, to build stronger security ties. These efforts indicate a strategy to both tie the US into the region, and to diversify security partnerships.
Calls for Nuclear Deterrence: There are increasing discussions within South Korea about developing its own nuclear weapons or requesting the return of US tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula. This reflects growing doubts about the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella, particularly in the face of North Korea's advancing nuclear capabilities.
Diplomatic Initiatives with North Korea and China: South Korea has pursued diplomatic engagement with North Korea and sought to maintain stable relations with China, sometimes independently of US policies. This approach suggests that South Korea is exploring alternative strategies to ensure its security, potentially due to concerns about US consistency and support.
Public and Political Discourse: South Korean media, political leaders, and the public have increasingly questioned the US commitment to their defense. This discourse reflects a broader unease and skepticism about the future of the US-ROK alliance, particularly in the context of changing global dynamics and US domestic politics.
These signs collectively indicate that while South Korea still values its alliance with the US, it is taking steps to reduce its vulnerability and prepare for scenarios where US support might not be as robust as it once was. The irony is that while South Korea fears abandonment, further progress will reduce the viability of the alliance in South Korea’s domestic politics. In preparing for US abandonment, South Korea may set the stage for itself to abandon the alliance.