North Korea and the "suicide" drone
North Korea's acquisition of technology and battlefield experience in drone warfare opens a new era of potential provocations.
Reports in the Western media recently highlighted details of a Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) report on the visit of Kim Jong-un to the Unmanned Aerial Technology Complex (UATC) where he emphasized the need to mass produce drones and update military theory, practice and education to accomodate these changes.
While this was widely reported in sensationalist terms, such as “Kim orders the massproduction of suicide drones”, the desire to update the military to accomodate the dramatic transformation in warfare caused by unmanned aerial vehicles is no different from anywhere across the globe. The difference lies in North Korea’s adaptation. North Korea has a long history of engaging in military activities that draw international attention and impact regional security. These actions, ranging from missile tests to artillery strikes and cyberattacks, are deliberate and assumed to be carefully calibrated to achieve strategic or political objectives.
The aim in such targeted military actions is to assert a position while avoiding full-scale conflict, such as occurred with the March 2010 sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, which resulted in the deaths of 46 South Korean sailors. The emergence of drone technology has added a new dimension to the ways North Korea can conduct operations of this nature and makes many of the lessons from prior actions obsolete.
Enter the drone
Drones provide North Korea with a low-cost, adaptable, and often difficult-to-trace tool for intelligence gathering, disruption, and other activities. Their versatility and deniability make them an effective addition to Pyongyang’s existing strategies, offering new means of testing defenses and responding to geopolitical developments.
North Korea’s reported experimentation with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) dates back several decades, and it has since developed a variety of drones, including reverse-engineered versions of foreign systems. The proliferation of commercially available drones has likely further enabled North Korea to expand its capabilities, adding a modern, adaptable tool to its arsenal.
Reports also indicate that the additional combat experience secured in Ukraine will significantly add to North Korea’s capability. The Ukrainian military have used drones to deter and restrict Russian use of naval assets in the Black Sea. The knowledge gained from Russia regarding Ukrainian use of drones against a more powerful naval force will bring a new array of potential North Korean actions in traditional areas of contest, such as the disputed East Sea maritime border regions. Drones allow North Korea to undertake activities that complement its established strategies while also introducing new tactics.
Drones have the ability to operate in contested areas, gather intelligence, and deliver payloads. They can be used for:
Border surveillance and intrusion. Drones can be used to collect intelligence on military installations, monitor troop movements, and test air defense systems. North Korea has already employed drones in this capacity, such as in 2014 when a drone crashed in South Korea, revealing reconnaissance images of sensitive sites. These actions can serve both practical military purposes and political objectives by demonstrating North Korea’s ability to operate in sensitive areas.
Symbolic strikes. Small drones carrying limited payloads could target symbolic or non-critical sites, such as uninhabited islands or areas near border regions. These strikes could serve as a show of capability and resolve while minimizing the risk of escalation.
Disruption of economic activities. North Korea could use drones to interfere with infrastructure or activities that have economic significance, such as ports, power stations, or fishing operations. Such actions could create localized disruptions without the direct human costs associated with traditional provocations.
Psychological warfare. The presence of drones over sensitive areas or during significant events can create a psychological impact by reminding adversaries of North Korea’s operational reach. For example, drones could be used to drop propaganda leaflets or conduct overflights during military drills or diplomatic meetings.
Defense probing. Repeated drone incursions into contested airspace could test the readiness and response times of adversaries’ defense systems. The data gathered from these activities could inform North Korea’s strategic planning and highlight potential vulnerabilities.
Drones, particularly those resembling commercially available models, also offer a degree of plausible deniability. This makes them effective tools for actions that North Korea wishes to carry out without overtly claiming responsibility, complicating adversaries’ responses.
Regional risks
The use of drones by North Korea presents new challenges for regional security. Although drones may appear less overtly aggressive than traditional military actions, their versatility and stealth make them a complex threat.
One significant concern is the potential for unintended escalation. A drone strike or incursion into a highly sensitive area could be misinterpreted as a deliberate act of aggression, prompting a response that escalates beyond the intended scope of the action. The difficulty in attributing drone activity further complicates the situation, as states may struggle to identify the source of the provocation in real time.
North Korea’s continued development of drone technology also signals its evolving capacity to conduct asymmetric operations. Drones with longer ranges, more advanced payloads, or electronic warfare capabilities could significantly increase their effectiveness, allowing North Korea to disrupt communications, target infrastructure, or conduct operations over greater distances.
Defending against drones poses significant logistical and technological challenges. Small drones are difficult to detect and intercept, even for advanced defense systems, and North Korea’s use of swarming tactics or coordinated drone operations could further strain resources. This creates an additional layer of complexity for South Korea, which must balance resources across a range of potential threats.
The adaptability of drones also enables North Korea to operate in the gray zone of conflict, where actions fall short of conventional warfare but still create significant disruptions. This makes it more difficult for adversaries to respond decisively, as each incident must be evaluated in terms of its broader strategic implications.
The introduction of drones into North Korea’s operational toolkit reflects an ongoing evolution in its approach to strategic and military activities. By leveraging the versatility of drones, North Korea can conduct intelligence-gathering missions, test defenses, and carry out low-level provocations with reduced risk of immediate retaliation. As North Korea continues to refine its drone capabilities, the implications for regional stability and security will remain a critical area of concern.