Japan’s “One Theater” proposal won’t fly in South Korea

The political cost is too high, the strategic benefit too low, and the risks—military, diplomatic, and historical—too great.

Japan’s ambitious “One Theater” proposal—to integrate U.S. allies across East Asia into a single unified operational command—is generating buzz in Tokyo and cautious interest in Washington. But in Seoul, the response is far more skeptical. And for good reason.

While the plan may serve Japan’s strategic goals, it is unlikely to gain meaningful traction in South Korea. The proposal’s inherent risks, combined with deep-rooted mistrust and divergent threat perceptions, all but guarantee it will be met with political resistance, military caution, and public opposition. Its only chance is a conservative victory in the forthcoming presidential election.

There are some fairly obvious reasons why the proposal won’t fly under a progressive administration.