Analysis: South Korea's anxiety regarding Trump and North Korea
Concern is growing that Trump will go it alone with North Korea and leave the hardline Yoon Administration out in the cold.
Event or Trend: There is growing South Korean concern that Donald Trump will negotiate with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un to accept North Korea's nuclear arsenal in exchange for halting its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program.
Significance: South Korea views the potential of a self-interested Trump-Kim deal as a significant security and geopolitical concern. This is critical for South Korea, which faces a direct existential threat from its northern neighbor, and also for regional partners - in tacitly recognizing North Korea's nuclear capabilities, such an agreement could undermine the decades-long non-proliferation framework and embolden other nuclear-armed states. Policymakers and business leaders need to consider the broader ramifications: a destabilized Northeast Asia risks disrupting trade routes, supply chains, and alliances, especially between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. South Korea must navigate its strategic relationships carefully to ensure its security isn't compromised by a unilateral U.S.-North Korea deal.
Analysis: North Korea's nuclear ambitions have dominated regional security discussions for decades. Trump's prior summits with Kim Jong-un were groundbreaking but yielded no results. Recent signals suggest that Trump may pivot toward "freezing" the ICBM threat to the U.S., leaving North Korea's nuclear arsenal intact—a move that sidesteps the denuclearization demand central to the Biden and Yoon administrations.
A Trump-Kim deal legitimizing North Korea's nuclear weapons would have profound implications for regional and global security. For South Korea, this scenario diminishes the credibility of U.S. security guarantees. It risks fracturing the U.S.-South Korea alliance, as support for independent defense capabilities, potentially including a domestic nuclear program, would be bolstered.
From a broader diplomatic perspective, such a deal could normalize nuclear armament for rogue states. It challenges the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and may lead to increased nuclear weaponization by nations like Iran. For Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea might feel pressured to develop their nuclear deterrents, leading to an arms race.
The deal would also shift the geopolitical balance. China, while officially opposing nuclear proliferation, might tacitly welcome a weakened U.S.-South Korea alliance. Russia, preoccupied with its confrontation with the West, might exploit the discord to extend influence in the Korean Peninsula.
Economically, businesses operating in South Korea or reliant on stable regional trade could face increased uncertainty. The perception of a U.S. retreat from its leadership role in Asia might provoke shifts in investment strategies, with companies seeking to hedge risks by diversifying beyond the region.
While there remains no indication that Trump will again negotiate with Kim, the concern is a major talking point in Seoul strategic circles. They are particularly concerned this could happen in the second half of a Trump Administration if a progressive administration secures government in Seoul.
Diplomats should monitor U.S. confirmation hearings and public statements of cabinet nominees, and North Korea’s official statements for indicators of policy shifts for early warning signs. Any overt signals of re-engagement between Trump and Kim could forewarn potential realignments. Those operating on the Korean Peninsula will need to remain vigilant:
Foreign businesses will face increased geopolitical risk deterring support for long-term investment in South Korea.
Expatriates in South Korea will face heightened safety concerns.
Strained U.S.-South Korea ties could lead to weakened multilateral diplomacy in Asia.
Outlook: In the short term (0-12 months), South Korea and Japan are likely to intensify diplomatic efforts to secure reassurances from U.S. policymakers, including the incoming administration regarding commitments to regional security. This period may also see heightened public and political discourse within South Korea about the implications of a potential Trump-Kim deal.
Over the medium term (1-5 years), the possibility of a deal could drive significant strategic realignments in Northeast Asia. South Korea and Japan might increase their defense spending and enhance military cooperation, potentially including trilateral efforts with the U.S., to counterbalance the perceived threat posed by a nuclear-armed North Korea.
In the long term (5-10 years), sustained threats and the potential erosion of U.S. security guarantees could prompt a reevaluation of South Korea and Japan’s non-nuclear policies. This scenario may lead to a more militarized Northeast Asia, increasing the risk of regional instability and impacting global non-proliferation norms.