Analysis: South Korea and Taiwan Strait FONOPs

Pressure is increasing on South Korea to conduct or participate in FONOPs - business groups are strongly opposed.

Event or Trend: Pressure is increasing on South Korea to conduct or participate in Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the Taiwan Strait, following precedents set by other U.S. allies and partners. 

Significance: FONOPs carry profound geopolitical and economic implications for South Korea and the broader region. It signifies a profound shift in South Korea’s foreign policy, which has traditionally sought to balance its critical economic relationship with China and its security reliance on the United States. Given the sensitivity of the Taiwan Strait, regarded by China as a crucial area of national sovereignty, South Korea’s involvement in naval maneuvers in this contested space would strain ties with Beijing and trigger diplomatic fallout.

The decision also signals deeper alignment with the U.S, positioning South Korea more firmly within the framework of the U.S.-led security efforts in the Indo-Pacific. Understanding the consequences of this decision is vital, as it will impact regional security dynamics, economic ties, and domestic political discourse in South Korea.

Analysis: The U.S. and its allies and partners have increased the tempo of FONOPs with the U.K, France, Germany, Canada, Australia and the Philippines all participating in FONOPs during 2024. The Yoon Administration has made an effort to demonstrate its pro-U.S. position and is now coming under pressure to do similar.

South Korea’s passage of a naval vessel through the Taiwan Strait is a significant move that will reverberate in its foreign policy, regional security dynamics, and economic relations. At the geopolitical level, this action will heighten tensions with China. Beijing views any military presence in the Taiwan Strait as a direct challenge to its claims of sovereignty over Taiwan. South Korea’s involvement in this strategically sensitive area will be interpreted by China as siding with the U.S.-led efforts to contain Chinese influence. 

South Korea will face a cooling of diplomatic relations with China, which may manifest in diplomatic protest, military posturing near the Korean Peninsula, and potentially cyberattacks targeting South Korean government or private sector infrastructure.

Additionally, this decision will underscore South Korea’s increasing alignment with the United States in the Indo-Pacific. By conducting naval operations in the Taiwan Strait, Seoul would reinforce its commitment to regional security alongside countries like the U.S., Japan, and Australia, all of which have demonstrated concern regarding China’s growing assertiveness. A decision to undertake FONOPs would demonstrate a desire to enhance military cooperation and integration in regional security frameworks, such as the Quad and AUKUS, as well as greater intelligence sharing and joint defense initiatives. 

Such a shift comes with risks, especially concerning North Korea. Given that Pyongyang is a close ally of Beijing, it is likely that North Korea will react with heightened provocations, including aggressive rhetoric, missile tests, and will potentially receive Beijing’s tacit support for a seventh nuclear test. 

The economic consequences of this decision could be equally far-reaching. China remains South Korea’s largest trading partner, and Beijing has a history of using economic measures to punish countries that challenge its geopolitical interests. 

South Korean exports, particularly in sectors such as electronics, automobiles, and cosmetics, are heavily reliant on the Chinese market. Economic retaliation by China, such as import restrictions, could severely impact South Korean businesses, especially in the technology and manufacturing industries. South Korea’s dependence on China for critical raw materials and supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, makes it vulnerable to significant disruptions. A deterioration in economic relations with China would not only hurt South Korean companies but could also ripple through global markets, especially in the technology sector where both countries play a pivotal role.

Domestic political ramifications in South Korea will also be significant. Public opinion is currently divided on this issue. While right-leaning factions see this as a necessary step toward asserting South Korea’s strategic autonomy and regional leadership, left-leaning factions criticize it for unnecessarily jeopardizing economic ties with China. 

The move would be a central issue in domestic political discourse, with opposition parties using it to attack the government’s handling of foreign relations, potentially influencing upcoming elections. Labor unions, business groups, and other stakeholders in industries dependent on Chinese trade will raise concerns about the economic fallout from strained ties with Beijing. Those most reliant on China trade will raise strong opposition to a decision to conduct or participate in FONOPs.

Outlook: In the short term (0-12 months), South Korea will face increased pressure to undertake FONOPs and if required will seek to undertake FONOPs in conjunction with second-tier states supported by the U.S. In the medium term (1-5 years), a potential reaction and/or increased pressure from China will force a reversion to the more traditional balance between China and the U.S. In the long term (5-10 years), South Korea will increasingly seek to disengage from actions that impose a cost on its relationship with Beijing.