Analysis: South Korea and lethal aid to Ukraine

Concern is growing in Korea that the refusal to support Ukraine could lead to economic repercussions.

Topic: South Korea and lethal aid to Ukraine

Event or Trend: A Russian delegation, led by Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Moscow's Security Council, visited North Korea 13-14 September. South Korea continues to withhold lethal military aid to Kyiv despite increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea. 

Significance: South Korea has provided humanitarian and non-lethal aid to Ukraine, but has not provided lethal aid. This reluctance to supply arms is increasingly viewed unfavorably in Europe. 

Concern is growing in Korea that the refusal to support Ukraine could lead to economic repercussions. Ukraine's post-war reconstruction is expected to be a multi-billion-dollar effort, with lucrative contracts for infrastructure, energy, and defense companies. South Korea’s exclusion from these projects may weaken its global standing, especially in diplomatic relations with Europe, and limit its influence in shaping post-war security frameworks in Eastern Europe.

Analysis: South Korea's decision to refrain from sending lethal military aid to Ukraine has been driven by a complex array of strategic concerns. While it has supplied humanitarian assistance and non-lethal military equipment, Seoul has resisted Western pressure to provide arms, out of fear of damaging its relations with Russia​. This decision reflects concerns about energy dependence on Russia and the potential for retaliation, particularly in the form of Russian support for North Korea.

Russia’s growing relationship with North Korea has only heightened Seoul's caution. North Korea has been providing ammunition and other military supplies to Russia, fueling its war in Ukraine​. A Russian delegation, led by Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Security Council head, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. The visit, part of ongoing strategic dialogue, focused on bilateral and international issues. This comes amid growing North Korea-Russia military cooperation, particularly following Russia's war in Ukraine. Earlier in 2023, Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin signed a mutual defense treaty. South Korea’s intelligence also reports that North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui visited Russia. Further details of Shoigu's trip remain undisclosed. 

South Korea’s failure to provide arms is starting to raise concern in South Korea that it could be excluded from Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction planning. 

Countries that have provided critical military support, such as the United States and various EU members, are expected to have a central role in the rebuilding process, securing significant contracts for their industries. In contrast, South Korea, despite its strong industrial and technological base, may find itself excluded.

Further, there are fears that South Korea’s trade relationship with Russia will come under closer scrutiny. South Korea’s trade with Russia, both direct and indirect via Central Asia and China, is beginning to attract attention and discussion. A number of European state diplomats have commenced raising the issue in dialogue with Korean counterparts. Given Korea’s role in Europe, being excluded from reconstruction projects is as much about sentiment as formal requirements.

Exclusion would have significant economic implications. Ukraine’s reconstruction is projected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars, with opportunities in rebuilding infrastructure, energy systems, and defense capabilities. For South Korea, whose economy is heavily export-dependent, missing out on these contracts could limit its economic engagement with Ukraine and Europe, at a time when diversifying trade partners is essential.

Additionally, South Korea’s exclusion would signal a weakening of its influence in the international arena. The reconstruction of Ukraine is not just an economic venture, but also a critical geopolitical project. Countries involved will have a greater say in shaping the future security and political framework of Eastern Europe, an area that has gained increased strategic importance since Russia’s invasion. By not contributing militarily, South Korea risks marginalizing its voice in these critical discussions and may be seen as a less reliable ally by the West.

Outlook: South Korea’s decision not to provide lethal military aid to Ukraine presents an economic and diplomatic risk. The reconstruction of Ukraine offers significant business opportunities, but South Korea’s exclusion would limit its access to these projects. If South Korea continues to prioritize its cautious stance toward Russia, it risks further marginalization in European and international efforts to rebuild and secure Ukraine.

To reverse this trend, South Korea is being encouraged to reconsider its approach to military aid and seek ways to engage more fully in both Ukraine's current defense needs and future reconstruction. This may include targeted “token” actions, similar to South Korea’s work in northern Iraq in the mid-2000s. A targeted token approach would both signal dissatisfaction with Russia-North Korea cooperation and ensure it is not excluded from efforts to rebuild and secure Ukraine.