Analysis: North Korean soldiers in Ukraine

North Korea is carefully managing a limited troop deployment to Ukraine to secure advantage and avoid disruption.

Event or Trend: North Korea is reportedly deploying troops to Ukraine in support of Russia, following the mutual defense agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow.

Significance: The involvement of North Korean forces in Ukraine marks a significant escalation in the military alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow. This development is crucial as it not only enhances North Korea's military cooperation with Russia but also serves its strategic interests in gaining exposure to modern warfare tactics. The limited deployment suggests a calculated approach by North Korea to avoid the risks of troop mobilization experience that could inspire dissent or demand for reforms back home. Understanding this dynamic is essential for governments monitoring security in the region and international relations.

Analysis: The dispatch of North Korean troops to Ukraine serves dual objectives: it strengthens military ties in fulfillment of its alliance with Russia and secures valuable military knowledge. 

1. Strengthening military ties with Russia:

   • Mutual defense agreement. North Korea's recent military agreement with Russia, signed by leaders Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin in June 2024, highlights a significant step in fulfillment of the military alliance. This agreement signals North Korea's intent to support Russian efforts, even at the cost of its own casualties, as indicated by recent reports of North Korean officer deaths near Donetsk.

   • Geopolitical implications. The partnership enables North Korea to demonstrate its support for Russia, and secure future economic aid, technology transfers, or diplomatic backing against international sanctions. Recent unconfirmed reports indicate that Russia may be assisting in the development of a North Korean nuclear submarine, which would disrupt the military balance on the Korean Peninsula.

2. Knowledge acquisition and tactical learning:

   • Exposure to modern combat. The deployment allows North Korean forces to gain firsthand experience in contemporary warfare tactics used in Ukraine. This includes exposure to technologies like drone use, advanced missile systems, and cyber warfare techniques that could be invaluable in modernizing North Korea’s military capabilities.

   • Integration into military strategies: Insights gathered from this conflict could be integrated into North Korea’s military doctrines, enhancing its capabilities in asymmetric and defensive warfare against more technologically advanced adversaries.

The deployment currently appears to be small in number. This manages the risks associated with exposing its forces to foreign combat.

1. Limited deployment to Manage Internal Risks:

   • Risk of ideological contamination. The cautious deployment strategy appears designed to prevent the spread of foreign influences among the troops. Exposure to Russian or Ukrainian combat conditions could otherwise broaden their perspectives, leading to increased ideological dissent upon their return to North Korea.

   • Limited exposure. The small numbers also suggest an awareness that large numbers of returning soldiers from any “limited conflict” increases the risk of the capacity of dissent to spread, coordinate and act. The same was seen in South Korea and U.S. soldiers on return from combat in Vietnam, and Russian soldiers on return from Afghanistan and Chechnya. 

   • Minimizing casualties. Reports of North Korean casualties in Ukraine indicate a deliberate approach to deploy a manageable number of troops to reduce the risk of significant losses, which could spark domestic unrest or criticism of Kim Jong-un’s policies.

2. Calculated Involvement:

   • Balancing engagement and containment: North Korea's strategy appears to focus on gaining tactical and technical knowledge while avoiding a large-scale troop involvement that might provoke international condemnation or policy action. This measured involvement allows North Korea to support its ally without fully exposing its hand in the conflict.

The current reporting on North Korea’s troops in Ukraine is expected to continue with South Korea and the United States aware that drawing the Russian and North Korean threat in Europe and East Asia together contributes to policy aims.

Outlook: In the short term (0-12 months), North Korea's troop presence in Ukraine is expected to remain low-key but strategically positioned for maximum intelligence gathering. In the medium term (1-5 years), the military knowledge gained could influence North Korea's strategies, although strict control will be maintained to prevent political repercussions. In the long term (5-10 years), the alliance with Russia may lead to enhanced military capabilities for North Korea but also risks potential internal unrest if troop exposure to combat conditions is not carefully managed.