Analysis: Concerns grow regarding South Korea’s strategic shift towards U.S.
The Yoon Administration discarded efforts to balance relations with China and the U.S. Some now think it has gone too far.
Event or Trend: Concern is growing that President Yoon Suk-yeol’s deepening of ties with the U.S. and Japan increases medium-term risk.
Significance: South Korea’s pivot from a pragmatic balance between China and the U.S. to a more active U.S.-aligned stance challenges the region’s long-standing equilibrium. The shift represents a critical realignment in East Asia, affecting regional security, economic integration, and diplomatic dynamics. Concerns in South Korea are growing that unfavorable political changes in Japan and the U.S. and dissatisfaction in China may coincide, leaving the country in a highly vulnerable position. Opponents are beginning to formulate alternative approaches, and criticism is getting more vocal.
Understanding how opposition to this strategic shift develops is essential for policy makers and business leaders, as it will have ripple effects across global supply chains, defense strategies, political risk, and diplomatic engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysis: Historically, South Korea sought to balance its relationships with both the U.S. and China, taking into account China’s dominant economic role and geographical proximity.
This pragmatic balancing strategy has a very long history in Korean strategic thought, and is a natural consequence of the peninsula’s position as a pivot between continental and maritime powers.
Since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1992, Seoul maintained a degree of acquiescence to China's rising influence, driven by a complex interdependence. Beijing is not only South Korea’s largest trading partner but is also believed to hold substantial influence over regional stability, especially in relation to North Korea.
The election of President Yoon Suk-yeol brought a decisive break from this delicate balancing act. His administration made clear moves to tighten the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral relationship.
South Korea has increased joint military exercises, technological cooperation, and the bolstered of security frameworks, including the Nuclear Consultative Group, with the U.S. and also made cautious but far-reaching steps to initiate military cooperation with Japan. South Korea has also undertaken negotiations towards closer security cooperation with Australia and the Philippines.
South Korea is also expected to follow the U.K., Germany, Australia, and New Zealand by transiting naval assets through the Taiwan Straits. Through these initiatives, the Yoon Administration positioned South Korea firmly within the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, viewed negatively in Beijing as efforts to contain China.
Several factors underpin Seoul’s shift towards Washington.
China’s assertive diplomacy. Economic coercion like its 2017 sanctions on South Korea over the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system, has demonstrated to Seoul the risks of relying too heavily on Beijing.
Growing regional threats. North Korea’s advancing nuclear capabilities, have driven South Korea to seek stronger security guarantees from the U.S.
Rising tensions. The Taiwan Strait has contributed to Seoul’s growing concerns about China's intentions and its broader impact on regional security.
Political expediency. South Korea’s political sentiment follows a distinct pattern between extremes on core issues. Yoon came to power on a resurgence of frustration regarding North Korea, concern regarding China, and favorable attitudes towards the U.S.
Aligning closer to Japan represents the most significant recalibration. Historically, relations between Seoul and Tokyo have been strained by unresolved historical grievances stemming from Japan’s occupation of Korea.
Under Yoon, there has been a clear effort to move past these issues in favor of a stronger security partnership, a significant departure from the policies of previous administrations, which often prioritized reconciliation over strategic cooperation.
South Korea’s epistemic community are beginning to express concerns that the strategy brings risk. China has not yet undertaken any action to demonstrate its disfavor with South Korea’s closer ties with the U.S. and Japan. China’s reactions have to date have been subdued but will grow as its interests are further threatened.
Internal divisions within South Korea regarding Yoon’s diplomacy are now increasing. There are three points of concern.
Polarization and division. Historians often point to internal division between supporters of continental and maritime powers for Korea’s loss of independence at critical junctures in history. External support for political leaders exacerbated internal division in the post-WW2 period, which resulted in the current division between North and South Korea. Politics in South Korea are becoming more polarized with less willingness to compromise.
Economic retaliation. China is still South Korea’s largest trading partner. While China is increasingly also a competitor in third-markets, exclusion from China’s domestic market would hurt South Korea’s export-driven economy. There are fears that South Korea will be both excluded from China and U.S. markets under a Trump Administration that pays less attention to alliance politics.
Political retaliation. China has the potential to impose significant political burdens on Korea. This could include increased support for North Korea, increased tension in maritime borders, historical claims on cultural assets, and increased restrictions on South Koreans in China.
Prior to the Yoon Administration’s shift, it was widely believed that any conflict between China and the U.S. in the region would not necessarily involve South Korea. It was believed that South Korea would play a support role akin to its role in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Concerns are that South Korea is now positioning itself to be a direct front line combatant in any future China-U.S. conflict. A number of academics use historical references to the Sino-Japanese (1894-95), Russo-Japanese (1904-05), and Korean War (1950-53), which all involved continental and maritime powers competing for control of the Korean Peninsula, enlisting proxy combatants, and fighting on Korean territory.
Outlook: In the short term (0-12 months), South Korea will likely continue to deepen military cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, particularly in the face of North Korean provocations. Medium-term (1-5 years), there will be growing friction within South Korea regarding its role as a front line state in China-U.S. competition. As younger generations become more influential in South Korea’s epistemic community there will be a push to move South Korea away from dependence on both the U.S. and China.